Seven-Day Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
學年 105
學期 1
出版（發表）日期 2017-01-04
作品名稱 Seven-Day Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
作品名稱（其他語言）
著者 Hsiao-Chung Tsai; Russell. L. Elsberry
單位
出版者
著錄名稱、卷期、頁數 Weather and Forecasting 32(1), p.141-147
摘要 The extension of the Weighted Analog Intensity Atlantic (WAIA) prediction technique for Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) from 5 to 7 days revealed a need for two modifications. The first modification for the 7-day WAIA was to randomly select 70% of the TCs in the entire 2000–15 sample to be the training set and use the remaining 30% as the independent set. The second modification was to ensure that appropriate analogs were selected for ending storm situations such as landfall, postrecurvature, and nondevelopment or delayed intensification within the 7-day forecast interval. By simply constraining the analog selection such that the intensity at the last matching point with the target TC track does not exceed 50 kt (where 1 kt = 0.51 m s−1), an increasing overforecast bias with forecast interval was almost eliminated in both the training set and the independent set. With these two analog selection modifications, the mean absolute errors, and the correlation coefficients of the 7-day WAIA intensities with the verifying intensities, are essentially constant from 5 to 7 days, which establishes this WAIA as a viable technique for 7-day intensity forecasts of Atlantic TCs.
關鍵字 Forecasting techniques
語言 en_US
ISSN 0882-8156;1520-0434
期刊性質 國外
收錄於 SCI
產學合作
通訊作者
審稿制度 是
國別 USA
公開徵稿
出版型式 ,電子版,紙本
相關連結

機構典藏連結 ( http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/109479 )