A fuzzy real option approach for investment project valuation
學年 100
學期 1
出版（發表）日期 2011-11-01
作品名稱 A fuzzy real option approach for investment project valuation
作品名稱（其他語言）
著者 Ho, Shiu-Hwei; Liao, Shu-hsien
單位 淡江大學管理科學學系
出版者 Kidlington: Pergamon
著錄名稱、卷期、頁數 Expert Systems with Applications 38(12), pp.15296–15302
摘要 The main purpose of this paper is to propose a fuzzy approach for investment project valuation in uncertain environments from the aspect of real options. The traditional approaches to project valuation are based on discounted cash flows (DCF) analysis which provides measures like net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR). However, DCF-based approaches exhibit two major pitfalls. One is that DCF parameters such as cash flows cannot be estimated precisely in the uncertain decision making environments. The other one is that the values of managerial flexibilities in investment projects cannot be exactly revealed through DCF analysis. Both of them would entail improper results on strategic investment projects valuation. Therefore, this paper proposes a fuzzy binomial approach that can be used in project valuation under uncertainty. The proposed approach also reveals the value of flexibilities embedded in the project. Furthermore, this paper provides a method to compute the mean value of a project’s fuzzy expanded NPV that represents the entire value of project. Finally, we use the approach to practically evaluate a project.
關鍵字 Project valuation; Real options; Fuzzy numbers; Flexibility; Uncertainty
語言 en_US
ISSN 0957-4174
期刊性質 國外
收錄於 SCI
產學合作
通訊作者
審稿制度 是
國別 GBR
公開徵稿
出版型式 紙本
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