Short-run and Long-run Effects of Exchange Rate Change on Trade Balance：Evidence from China and Its Trading Partners
學年 101
學期 1
出版（發表）日期 2012-12-01
作品名稱 Short-run and Long-run Effects of Exchange Rate Change on Trade Balance：Evidence from China and Its Trading Partners
作品名稱（其他語言）
著者 Wang, Chun-Hsuan; Lin, Chun-Hung A.; Yang, Chih-Hai
單位 淡江大學產業經濟學系
出版者 Amsterdam: Elsevier BV * North-Holland
著錄名稱、卷期、頁數 Japan and World Economy 24(4), pp.266-273
摘要 As one of largest exporting countries in the world, China has experienced a large amount of trade surpluses for the past decade. However, a growing criticism has been focused on the manipulation of Chinese Yuan (RMB) exchange rate by the Chinese government. While China implemented the exchange rate reform policy in July 2005, the question, whether its currency is undervalued remains as a debatable issue. Different from previous studies by focusing on individual trading partners, this paper tests the short-run J-Curve hypothesis and long-run trade balance effect of real exchange rate between China and its eighteen major trading partners using a panel dataset over the 2005–2009 period. We adopt the methodologies of panel cointegration test, fully modified OLS for heterogeneous cointegrated panel (panel FMOLS) and panel error correction model (panel ECM) to investigate the above examination. Our empirical results lend support to the inverted J-curve hypothesis between China and its trading partners. However, we find that a real appreciation of RMB has a decreasing long-run effect on China's trade balance in only three of the eighteen trading partners, while it has an increasing long-run effect in five of the eighteen trading partners. These mixed findings, therefore, lead to the empirical evidence that the real appreciation of RMB has no overall long-run impact on China's trade balance.
關鍵字 Exchange rate;J-curve;Panel cointegration;Trade balance;China
語言 en_US
ISSN 0922-1425
期刊性質 國外
收錄於 SSCI
產學合作
通訊作者 Yang, Chih-Hai
審稿制度 是
國別 NLD
公開徵稿
出版型式 電子檔 紙本
相關連結

機構典藏連結 ( http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/80142 )

機構典藏連結
SDGS 消除貧窮