Investment project valuation based on a fuzzy binomial approach
學年 98
學期 2
出版（發表）日期 2010-06-01
作品名稱 Investment project valuation based on a fuzzy binomial approach
作品名稱（其他語言）
著者 Liao, Shu-Hsien; Ho, Shiu-Hwei
單位 淡江大學經營決策學系
出版者 Philadelphia: Elsevier Inc.
著錄名稱、卷期、頁數 Information Sciences 180(11), pp.2124–2133
摘要 The typical approaches to project valuation are based on discounted cash flows (DCF) analysis which provides measures like net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR). DCF-based approaches exhibit two major pitfalls. One is that DCF parameters such as cash flows cannot be estimated precisely in an uncertain decision making environment. The other one is that the values of managerial flexibilities in investment projects cannot be exactly revealed through DCF analysis. Both of them would have significant influence on strategic investment projects valuation. This paper proposes a fuzzy binomial approach that can be used in project valuation under uncertainty. The proposed approach also reveals the value of flexibilities embedded in the project. Furthermore, this paper provides a method to compute the mean value of a project’s fuzzy NPV. The project’s fuzzy NPV is characterized with right-skewed possibilistic distribution because these flexibilities retain the upside potential of profit but limit the downside risk of loss. Finally, this paper discusses the value of multiple options in a project.
關鍵字 Project valuation; Fuzzy numbers; Real options; Flexibility; Uncertainty
語言 en
ISSN 0020-0255
期刊性質 國外
收錄於 SCI SSCI
產學合作
通訊作者 Ho, Shiu-Hwei
審稿制度
國別 USA
公開徵稿
出版型式 紙本
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