期刊論文
| 學年 | 111 |
|---|---|
| 學期 | 2 |
| 出版（發表）日期 | 2023-02-09 |
| 作品名稱 | Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change |
| 作品名稱（其他語言） | |
| 著者 | Chie, Bin-tzong |
| 單位 | |
| 出版者 | |
| 著錄名稱、卷期、頁數 | Nature Human Behaviour 7, p.484–501 |
| 摘要 | How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender–career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists’ forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. |
| 關鍵字 | Human behaviour;Science, technology and society |
| 語言 | en |
| ISSN | 2397-3374 |
| 期刊性質 | 國外 |
| 收錄於 | SCI SSCI NotTSSCI |
| 產學合作 | |
| 通訊作者 | Igor Grossmann |
| 審稿制度 | 否 |
| 國別 | GBR |
| 公開徵稿 | |
| 出版型式 | ,電子版,紙本 |
| 相關連結 |
機構典藏連結 ( http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/124258 ) |