期刊論文
| 學年 | 102 |
|---|---|
| 學期 | 2 |
| 出版（發表）日期 | 2014-04-01 |
| 作品名稱 | Tourism demand forecasting using a novel high-precision fuzzy time series model |
| 作品名稱（其他語言） | |
| 著者 | Tsaur, R.-C.; Kuo, T.-C. |
| 單位 | 淡江大學管理科學學系 |
| 出版者 | Kumamoto: I C I C International |
| 著錄名稱、卷期、頁數 | International Journal of Innovative Computing, Information and Control 10(2), pp.695-701 |
| 摘要 | Fuzzy time series model has been developed to either improve forecasting accuracy or reduce computation time, whereas a residul analysis in order to improve its forecasting performance is still lack of consideration. In this paper, we propose a novel Fourier method to revise the analysis of residual terms, and then we illustrate it to forecast the Japanese tourists visiting in Taiwan per year. The forecasting results show that our proposed method can derive the best forecasting performance as well as the smallest forecasting error of MAPE in the training sets; in the testing sets, the proposed model is also better to fit the future trend than some forecasting models. |
| 關鍵字 | Fuzzy time series; Fourier series; Residual analysis; Japanese tourists; Fore-
 casting performance |
| 語言 | |
| ISSN | 1349-4198 |
| 期刊性質 | |
| 收錄於 | EI |
| 產學合作 | |
| 通訊作者 | |
| 審稿制度 | 是 |
| 國別 | JPN |
| 公開徵稿 | |
| 出版型式 | 紙本 電子版 |
| 相關連結 |
機構典藏連結 ( http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/99125 ) |