會議論文
| 學年 | 86 |
|---|---|
| 學期 | 1 |
| 發表日期 | 1997-08-18 |
| 作品名稱 | Improved grey prediction models for trans-Pacific air passenger market |
| 作品名稱（其他語言） | |
| 著者 | Hsu, Chaug-ing; 溫裕弘; Wen, Yuh-horng; Hsu, Chaug-ing |
| 作品所屬單位 | 淡江大學運輸管理學系 |
| 出版者 | American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) |
| 會議名稱 | The International Aviation Simulation and Modeling Conference |
| 會議地點 | Arlington, Virginia, USA |
| 摘要 | This study examines the precision of the Grey forecasting model applied to samples based on demand and sales in the global integrated circuit (IC) industry. In doing so, the main objective is to explore which forecast model is most appropriate for the IC industry by comparing the empirical results from the Grey model (GM), time series and exponential smoothing. Furthermore, three residual modification models are applied to enhance the forecasting results. Empirical results indicate that the GM is better suited to short-term predictions than to mid- and long-term predictions. Meanwhile, the Markov-chain residual modification model achieves reliable and precise results.D 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. |
| 關鍵字 | Aviation;Economics;Passenger Transportation |
| 語言 | en |
| 收錄於 | |
| 會議性質 | 國際 |
| 校內研討會地點 | |
| 研討會時間 | 19970818~19970818 |
| 通訊作者 | |
| 國別 | |
| 公開徵稿 | Y |
| 出版型式 | 紙本 |
| 出處 | Proceedings of the International Aviation Simulation and Modeling Conference, pp. 87-107 |
| 相關連結 |
機構典藏連結 ( http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/68724 ) |